Close: A-Shares Rebound, 4,800+ Stocks Rise, Consumer Stocks Gain Strength
On September 19th, the three major A-share indices rebounded.
By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.19%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.85%.
Overall, more stocks rose than fell, with Wind data showing nearly 4,800 stocks across the market advancing.
The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 627 billion yuan, an increase of 147.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day.
Looking at the market, almost all industry sectors rose, with liquor, grain concepts, Huawei's Euler, agricultural planting, and other sectors leading the gains, while China Shipbuilding and insurance stocks declined.
Specifically, consumer stocks collectively strengthened, with liquor stocks soaring, and stocks of Huangtai Liquor, Jiugui Liquor, and Rock Shares hitting the upper limit; Kweichow Moutai experienced wide fluctuations, closing down by 0.47%.
Stocks related to state-owned enterprise reform continued to be active, with more than 20 stocks including Dalian Heat Power, Datang Telecom, and Great Wall Electric Appliances hitting the upper limit.
China Shipbuilding-related stocks performed poorly, with China Dynamics and China Shipbuilding Technology falling by more than 5%.
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[Capital Flow] Main funds continued to flow into sectors such as computers, real estate, and food and beverages at the end of the day, while outflowing from sectors like national defense and banking.
[Institutional View] CITIC Securities believes that the Fed's 50bps rate cut this time is a preemptive rate cut aimed at maintaining the current state of economic growth and the job market, while maintaining policy flexibility.
It is expected that there will be two more 25bps rate cuts within the year.
After the overnight trading rate cut expectation was realized, the market may return to a "soft landing" trading scenario in the short term, with limited room for U.S. Treasury yields to decline, and U.S. stocks may continue to be highly volatile.
Sectors such as biotechnology and real estate often perform well in "soft landing" rate cut trades.
Huatai Securities said that August data showed that the real estate fundamentals are still bottoming out.
The year-on-year decline in development investment narrowed slightly, the decline in new starts narrowed, but the decline in completions widened significantly; sales coincided with the off-season, the decline narrowed but the decline in housing prices widened month-on-month, with first-tier cities all declining month-on-month; in terms of financing, the improvement in the implementation of development loans led to a further narrowing of the decline in funds for real estate companies, and it is still necessary for financing coordination mechanisms to continue to exert effort.
Under the demand for "stable real estate," policies are gradually being implemented at the operational level, which is expected to promote the repair of confidence in the real estate market and to bottom out as soon as possible, providing valuation repair space for the sector.
High-quality real estate companies with abundant reserves in core cities and stable operations are favored.
Huachuang Securities believes that this year's Mid-Autumn Festival atmosphere is flat, and sales have declined.
The core reason for the decline in sales is the weakening of external demand and a decrease in consumption frequency/level.
In addition, factors such as stricter industry regulation and typhoon weather in the East China region also have a certain impact.
This situation may improve to some extent from after the Mid-Autumn Festival to before the National Day.
The key is that the interval between this year's Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is relatively long at two weeks, providing a certain window period for the increase in the frequency of return visits and banquet scenes.
Terminals are expected to replenish stocks before the National Day, and channels may add some repayments near the end of the financial year to ensure annual profits, and inventory may be digested to some extent.
It is recommended to grasp the liquor companies with excellent sales and strong repayment certainty.
The valuation of the current liquor sector has reached a lower level, leaving enough value space, and the bottom is preferred with leaders with cost-effective valuation and performance certainty.
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