RMB Surges, Gold Prices Hit Record High!

On September 20th local time, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced mixed performances, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly rising, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both fell slightly.

The U.S. Dollar Index increased by 0.10%; the offshore RMB surged nearly 300 pips, once breaking through the 7.04 level; the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen increased by nearly 1%.

At the same time, spot gold rose by more than 1%, setting a new historical high, reaching a peak of $2625.77 per ounce.

The RMB increased by nearly 300 pips, and Wind data showed that on September 20th local time, the U.S. Dollar Index increased by 0.10%, reporting at 100.7335; the euro against the U.S. dollar increased by 0.02%, reporting at 1.1163; the British pound against the U.S. dollar increased by 0.29%, reporting at 1.3322; the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen increased by 0.89%, reporting at 143.9045; the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar increased by 293 pips, reporting at 7.0416, once breaking through the 7.04 level, with the highest reporting at 7.0388.

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CITIC Securities expects that in the future, the concentration of export companies' settlement may increase short-term exchange rate volatility, and the RMB exchange rate may approach 7 yuan, however, it is estimated that the probability of the RMB exchange rate trend breaking through 7 yuan within the year is not high: First, although the Fed cut interest rates significantly this time, the subsequent path is flexible and robust; second, the domestic economy still has a problem of insufficient effective demand in the short term; third, the People's Bank of China wants to maintain exchange rate stability, and both rapid appreciation and rapid depreciation may pose certain risks.

Reviewing the past three rounds of RMB exchange rate appreciation cycles, it can be found that both the U.S. Dollar Index has significantly weakened and the domestic economic fundamentals have improved significantly.

Gold prices continue to reach new highs, with both spot gold and COMEX gold futures continuing to reach new highs.

Spot gold rose by 1.36%, reporting at $2621.88 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 1.71% for the week; COMEX gold futures rose by 1.25%, reporting at $2647.4 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 1.41% for the week.

Spot silver rose by 1.27%, reporting at $31.1775 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 1.49% for the week; COMEX silver futures rose by 0.23%, reporting at $31.495 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 1.35% for the week.

Apple's stock price plummeted vertically on September 20th local time, with the three major U.S. stock indices experiencing mixed performances.

As of the closing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.09%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 0.36% and 0.19% respectively.

Large technology stocks experienced mixed performances.

Apple's stock price plummeted vertically at the end, turning from a nearly 2% increase to a decline, and ultimately closed down by 0.29%, with the latest market value of $346.96 billion (equivalent to 2.447 trillion yuan).

Microsoft fell by 0.78%, Google-A rose by 0.89%, Amazon fell by 0.91%, Meta rose by 0.40%, and Netflix fell by 0.47%.

In addition, Tesla fell by 2.32%, and Nvidia fell by 1.59%.

The economic "weathervane" issued a warning, with the stock price of FedEx, the economic "weathervane" of the United States, plummeting by 15.24%.

At the beginning of the new fiscal year, FedEx's sales revenue turned to negative growth, and profit expectations plummeted.

In addition, FedEx also lowered its revenue and profit guidance for the current fiscal year, and the market once again ignited concerns about a recession in the U.S. economy.

Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, said: "Although the market is currently full of optimism, there are obviously some potential concerns.

In particular, the pace of interest rate cuts priced by the futures market is more aggressive than the dot plot suggested by the Fed on Wednesday, and investors believe that if the downside risks emerge, the pace of interest rate cuts may need to be accelerated."

WTI crude oil rose by 4.8% this week, with U.S. WTI crude oil closing almost flat on Friday, with a cumulative increase of more than 4% this week, marking the second consecutive week of gains.

Most energy stocks fell, with ExxonMobil falling by 0.62%, Chevron rising by 0.46%, ConocoPhillips falling by 0.46%, Schlumberger falling by 0.8%, and Occidental Petroleum falling by 0.77%.

This week, the Fed cut interest rates significantly, coupled with a decline in U.S. crude oil supplies, supporting oil prices.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Denmark's Saxo Bank, believes that only if the risk of economic recession really exists, will oil prices remain below $70 for a long time, and the Fed's significant interest rate cut this week helps to reduce the risk of the U.S. economy falling into a recession.